India’s GDP is likely to reach US$ 52 trillion in the next 50 years
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Goldman Sachs, an international investment institute, has said in one of its research papers that India’s GDP will be 52 trillion US dollars in the next 50 years. In this way, India will come first in the world in this regard, leaving America behind. At present, India is the fastest growing economy among the largest economies of the world. Various financial institutions like International Monetary Fund and World Bank have also expressed strong possibilities of India’s economic growth rate being 7.2 percent in the coming time. Whereas, today many countries of the world, especially Britain, Germany etc., are going through a period of economic contraction. Due to Russia Ukraine war, many developed countries are facing the crisis of energy shortage. India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar has been successful in building good relations with almost all the powerful countries of the world under the leadership of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Today Russia also needs India and so does America. Russia provides large quantities of crude oil and weapons to India for security. In the year 2022, India had imported goods worth US $ 4,000 crore from Russia. There is a strong possibility that it will increase to US$ 5,000 crore in the year 2023. Whereas America considers India as its strategic ally. Today all the big powers of the world want cordial relations with India. Russia, America, European countries and Arab countries want to expand their trade with India. Russia also wants good relations with India and so does Ukraine. On the other hand, Israel also wants good relations with India and so does Iran. India is a member of G-20 group and India is also a member of U2I2 and BRICS. Thus, overall, India’s voice is being heard all over the world today. Today India has the fourth largest army in the world. In case of war with China on the western border, India is fully prepared to deal with it today.
India today has young manpower. 66 percent of India’s population is below 35 years of age. 40 percent of the population is between 13 and 35 years. India has more population under the age of 35 than the total population of America. On the contrary, the population of many countries like China, Japan, Italy, France etc. is gradually decreasing. There is a dire need of youth today to sustain the economic activities in these countries which only India can provide in the entire world. There is a possibility that India’s population will continue to increase till the year 2064. Thus, at the global level, India will continue to play its role as an engine of development in the world for a long time.
The second biggest reason given in the above context is the recent digitization done in India. This has increased the efficiency and productivity of citizens even in rural areas of the country. In India, micro, small and medium industries are being provided full financial support by financial and banking institutions, due to which these industries are growing rapidly and creating millions of new employment opportunities in the country. In the past, banks provided financial assistance only to big industries, but now this trend has changed in India. Since the Covid pandemic, a big change has been seen in this regard. Due to digitalization, credit history of small businessmen is being created due to which banks are finding it easier to provide financial assistance to these small businessmen. ‘Aadhaar’ has created a separate identity for all the citizens of the country. In this context, the UPI platform has also reduced the use of cash in rural areas and transferred financial transactions to digital platforms. This digitalization has been very successful in bringing small businessmen, farmers and even ordinary citizens onto the financial platform. With this, the task of financial inclusion has also become easier. The number of digital businesses in India today is more than the US, China and Europe combined. Whereas the countries of America, China and Europe are more developed countries than India. This shows that India has left the entire world behind in terms of digitalization. Now India’s UPI system seems to be moving towards establishing its dominance in the matter of digitalization at the global level, leaving behind America’s Swift payment system. India’s UPI system has been implemented in Singapore, France, Sri Lanka and UAE. The Prime Minister of India had inaugurated the Indian UPI system in France, so that tourists visiting France can conduct financial transactions in France through the UPI system. Implementation of UPI is also being considered in New Zealand.
The third biggest reason in the above context is China’s continuously deteriorating relations with other countries of the world due to its expansionist policies. Today many countries of the world have started shying away from doing economic dealings with China. This situation can accelerate India’s economic development because many developed countries of the world have started following the policy of China + 1 and these countries are setting up their units in the field of manufacturing in India. China’s policy on countries like Taiwan is being condemned all over the world. China does not have good relations with almost all the countries bordering China. These countries are now losing trust in China. Companies like Apple and Tesla are now setting up their manufacturing units in India. Apple has even started the production of its iPhone 15 in India. Due to this, not only millions of new employment opportunities are being created in India but foreign investment is also increasing. Today, foreign exchange reserves in India have reached a record level of around US $ 65,000 crore. Also, today India’s capital market (stock market) has come to fourth place in the world.
India is spending huge amounts of money in developing its infrastructure. An amount of more than Rs 11.11 lakh crore has been budgeted for infrastructure in the financial year 2024-25, while an amount of more than Rs 10 lakh crore was spent on this item in the financial year 2023-24. Many other religious places like Ayodhya, Varanasi, Ujjain, Haridwar, Jammu and Kashmir are being developed so that religious tourism can be promoted in India. The infrastructure of these cities is being developed incomparable. Due to which lakhs of new employment opportunities are being created. The number of airports has more than doubled in the last 10 years to 150 and is being taken to 200 by 2025. Railways have been electrified. The speed of trains has been increased, due to which the efficiency level in the country is improving. Metro rail network is being laid in big cities of India. Today, India’s road network has surpassed that of China and is second in the world only to America. The Indian government plans to spend an amount of US $ 2 trillion on developing the country’s infrastructure between 2024 and 2030. Thus, a target has been set to include India in the category of developed countries by the year 2047. There is also a possibility that India will become the third largest economy in the world by the year 2027.
– Prahlad Sabnani
Retired Deputy General Manager,
state Bank of India
K-8, Chetakpuri Colony,
Jhansi Road, Lashkar,
Gwalior – 474 009
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