BJP can bet on new faces in Rajya Sabha and Legislative Council elections in UP.

Before the general elections, elections will be held on 10 Rajya Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh in April next year and on 13 Legislative Council seats in May. Apart from this, elections are also to be held on one assembly seat of Lucknow East. BJP MLA here Gopal Ji Tandon had died recently. A highly placed source of the party says that with the elections on a total of 18 Legislative Council, 10 Rajya Sabha and 80 Lok Sabha seats, the party will start giving a chance to the new leadership. Through these, the party will also prepare its new leadership in the forward, backward, Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe categories in the state. Those who the party will not give a chance to the Legislative Council, Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha again, will also be given some responsibility related to the organization. Keeping in mind the caste equation, new faces will be given a chance on these seats. Apart from this, the number of women and youth will be increased. People’s representatives of Panchayati Raj and urban body institutions, elected representatives of cooperative institutions, former and present officials of the party will also be included among those getting tickets.

However, the general elections are to be held sometime before the middle of next year, but before that BJP has to face some more elections also. Within a few days, elections are to be held first for the East Lucknow Legislative Assembly seat. This seat has become vacant after the death of BJP MLA Gopal Ji Tandon. Before the general elections, BJP has used its full strength to win this seat. She doesn’t want this seat to go away from her hands. If BJP loses here then its wrong message will be sent in the general elections also. Along with this, within a few months the election board will also be set for some vacant seats of Rajya Sabha and Legislative Council in UP. Let us tell you that the tenure of 10 seats of Uttar Pradesh quota in Rajya Sabha will end on April 2, 2024, before the general elections. At the same time, 13 seats of MLA quota in the Legislative Council will become vacant on May 5. Therefore, along with making the strategy for Lok Sabha elections, BJP and other parties will also have to adjust the division of these seats. Of the 10 Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant under the UP quota, BJP currently holds 9 seats. The only seat from SP will be vacant for Jaya Bachchan. The Election Commission can announce the election schedule for this in March next year. At the same time, out of 13 vacant seats in the Legislative Council, 10 are with BJP, one with its ally Apna Dal and 1 each with SP and BSP. Elections are proposed for these seats also before May 5.

If we talk about the ten Rajya Sabha seats that are falling vacant, SP had fielded Jaya Bachchan on one of these seats in the Rajya Sabha elections held in March 2018 and she had won the election. On another seat, SP, which was trying to extend a hand of friendship to Mayawati before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, had supported BSP candidate Bhimrao Ambedkar. However, BJP prevailed in cross-voting and arithmetic and won 9 of its candidates. Jaya Bachchan from SP won the election, but Bhimrao from BSP lost. Due to the mathematics of change of assembly after the 2022 elections, this time it will be difficult for BJP to save all the seats, while SP will have a chance to increase its numbers in Rajya Sabha.

Let us tell you that according to the current number of members of the Assembly, 37 votes will be required to elect a candidate from Rajya Sabha. SP has 109 MLAs and RLD has 9 MLAs. In such a situation, SP with 118 MLAs will be in a position to win at least three seats. The ruling alliance has a total of 279 (BJP-254, Apna Dal (S)-13, Nishad Party-6, Subhashpa-6) MLAs. In such a situation, its victory on 7 seats is almost certain. Apart from this, Congress has 2, Jansatta Dal has 2 and BSP has one MLA. Jansatta Dal generally supports BJP. In the last Legislative Council elections, Congress and BSP did not support the candidates of any party. However, for the Lok Sabha elections, efforts are being made to win and make new friends on both sides. In such a situation, the numbers and equations may change depending on the strength of friendship and loyalty till the time of elections.

It is noteworthy that at present there is no Congress member in the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Council. This has happened for the first time. In July last year, Congress had reached zero in the Legislative Council of UP for the first time. At present, the situation of Congress does not seem to be improving further. This time in May, BSP may also face the same situation in the Legislative Council. No one will be surprised if that also reaches zero. He has only one MLA and on this basis his candidate cannot even file the nomination, because even for nomination 10 proposers are required. According to the current mathematics of the Assembly, 29 MLAs will be required to make a candidate win in the Legislative Council. If the ruling party and the opposition are successful in keeping all their existing allies together by the time of elections, then the BJP alliance will be in a position to win at least 9 seats and the SP-RLD alliance will be in a position to win 4 seats. A big advantage of this will be for SP that once again it will become a contender for the seat of Leader of Opposition in the Legislative Council. It currently has 9 members in the council and is one behind the standard of 1/10 members required for the Leader of Opposition. According to the seats falling vacant on May 5, the number of SP members will reduce to 8. SP has 109 MLAs. In such a situation, he is in a position to win at least 3 seats on his own. Therefore, it is certain that he will be in the top ten in the council and he will get back the post of Leader of Opposition.

BJP’s Rajya Sabha members whose tenure is completing include Anil Aggarwal, Ashok Vajpayee, Anil Jain, Kanta Kardam, Sakaldeep Rajbhar, GVL Narasimha Rao, Vijay Pal Tomar, Sudhansh Trivedi, Harnath Singh Yadav and SP’s Jaya Bachchan. Similarly, the leaders whose tenure in the Legislative Council is about to end include BJP’s Yashwant Singh, Vijay Bahadur Pathak, Vidya Sagar Sonkar, Sarojini Aggarwal, Ashok Kataria, Ashok Dhawan, Bukkal Nawab, Mahendra Kumar Singh, Mohsin Raza, Nirmala Paswan. . Ashish Patel of Apna Dal (S), Naresh Chandra Uttam of SP and Bhimrao Ambedkar of BSP are included.

-Ajay Kumar