Congress victory in Karnataka is not a victory of Rahul Gandhi but of local leadership

The Bharatiya Janata Party has suffered a crushing defeat in its only stronghold in South India. By the way, if you look at the voting percentage, you will find that the vote percentage of Congress has increased by about 5 percent. It was 38 percent in 2018, which has increased to 43 percent this time. The vote share of BJP is more or less the same 36 per cent as it was in 2018. The vote share of JDS has come down from 18.4 to 13.3 per cent. It has declined by about five percent. It is clear that Congress got the reduced vote of JDS and this much difference in the results is in front of you. It is not difficult for the BJP to recover from this defeat, but if the Congress had lost, it would have been difficult for it to recover. Not only did he win the contest by securing a clear majority, but this victory would prove to be a turning point for him. But it should not be assumed that this is an indication of the changed mood of the public towards the BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The issues of Lok Sabha elections are different. Elections to Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram Assemblies will also be held at the end of the year. Except Mizoram, all other states are important. BJP will still get many opportunities to sharpen the strategy.

After this victory, it is being heard that this is the victory of Rahul Gandhi. His Bharat Jodo Yatra is a victory. Look carefully, this is a victory for the local leadership. The presence of state leader Mallikarjun Kharge as the party’s national president proved crucial, but the role of the national leadership behind the Congress victory is limited. Kharge was also seen as a Kannadiga. He communicates with the voters of the state in Kannada language. The Congress also worked to increase Kannada-pride, anti-Hindi Nandini-Amul and North-South sentiments. You can see the effect of these things. On the other hand look at the role of the BJP leadership. What does the way Yeddyurappa was removed in 2021 tell?

After winning Himachal, it is the achievement of the Congress to win Karnataka as well. Now she will be seen more excited in the elections of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Mallikarjun Kharge will get the credit for the fact that he led the party to victory in his home state. This was the last chance for the Congress. Had he gone to Karnataka, a lot would have gone away. Apart from Rahul and Kharge, there was also a test of the social-formula of the Congress in Karnataka. This formula is for minorities, Dalits and backward castes. Its preparation was started by Siddaramaiah from the year 2015, when he conducted the caste census of the state. Its results were not declared, but Siddaramaiah did promise to give 70 percent reservation to backward and Dalits. Reservation could not be done more than 50 per cent, but he said that we will make it 70 per cent. This has happened in Tamil Nadu, but for this the 76th amendment of the constitution was kept in the ninth schedule, so that it could not be challenged in the court. This is not possible in Karnataka until the approval of the Center is received.

Congress wants to emerge as a strong party before the Lok Sabha elections. On this basis, she wants to lead the opposition alliance at the national level. At the same time, she is also seeing it as the beginning of BJP’s downfall. His workers have been encouraged by this victory. Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, both top leaders in the state, have won their elections, while several ministers of the Bharatiya Janata Party have lost. The outgoing Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai has definitely won. Jagdish Shettar, who left BJP at the last moment and joined Congress, has been defeated, while Laxman Savadi has won.

The contradictions of the Congress in the state will also have to be looked into. Choosing between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar will not be an easy one. Now the question will be that who will be the Chief Minister? Till now the party has been demonstrating its unity. In August last year, on Siddaramaiah’s 75th birthday, Rahul Gandhi had expressed this unity by suggesting that both of them hug on stage, but now there will be a need to establish unity from a practical point of view. Congress has reiterated five guarantees of Griha Jyoti, Griha Lakshmi, Anna Bhagya, Yuva Nidhi and Shakti in its election manifesto. The party has promised the public in its manifesto that if it comes to power, 200 units of free electricity will be given under Griha Jyoti. Along with this, the Congress has promised to buy cow dung at Rs 3 per kg to promote animal husbandry and set up compost centers in villages. Under the Yuva Nidhi, Rs 3,000 each will be given to unemployed graduates and Rs 1,500 each to unemployed diploma holders in a month. Under Shakti Yojana all women will be given free travel facility in KSRTC/BMTC buses across the state. These promises will be tested after this.

The BJP expected that the Hindus would tilt towards the BJP because of the tilt of the Muslims towards the Congress, which seems not to have happened as per their expectation. The announcement made by the Congress in its manifesto to ban Bajrang Dal like PFI, it was feared that the displeasure of the voters would be expressed. But this did not happen. The polarization in the state started with the hijab controversy. The BJP had promised a Uniform Civil Code in the state and scrapped the four per cent reservation for Muslims and divided it between the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities just before the elections. It seems that the Congress also got the benefit of the defeat of JDS in the state. The Muslim and Dalit votes that JDS got have gone to the Congress. Muslim voters in the state are between 13 and 16 percent. There are 35 assembly seats where the population of Muslims is 20 percent or more. Apart from this, Muslim voters influence the election in 90 seats. At one level or the other, there has been an understanding between the Congress and the Muslim party SDPI. The SDPI had earlier announced to contest on 100 seats, but later fielded candidates on only 18.

BJP got 104 seats in the 2018 assembly elections. In this sense, it has suffered a setback, but a bigger setback has come parallel to the success achieved in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. 51.7 percent of the votes polled in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections resulted in 177 seats on assembly constituency-wise analysis. Now it has less than half the seats left. In that sense it is a bigger failure. Although voter interest is not the same in Lok Sabha and Vidhansabha elections, but this result is also important from the point of view of 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Had BJP not re-inducted BS Yeddyurappa into the mainstream, this election would have been a walk over for the Congress. The party understood that even if the Lingayat vote is lost, the party’s boat will sink. In 2008, Yeddyurappa single-handedly led the BJP to victory in Karnataka. After 2021, the BJP government became unpopular. The party cut the leaves of a large number of old veterans and fielded about a third of the new candidates. BJP was assuming that there is no wave in this election, but the record voter turnout of 73.19 percent should understand that there was some undercurrent, which was not in favor of BJP.

-Sachchidananda Satchu