How big a threat will the BSP prove to be for the Samajwadi Party in the UP civic elections?

The elections for the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh body elections have been completed. In the second and final phase, votes will be cast on May 10. If we talk about the first phase, it seems that Bahujan Samaj Party has spoiled the victory of Samajwadi Party in many seats. Samajwadi Party seems to be at a loss due to BSP supremo Mayawati’s playing the Muslim card in the civic body elections, and to make up for this loss, Akhilesh, conscious of this, has started rapping about calling BSP the B-team of BJP. On one hand SP is facing challenge from BSP and on the other hand SP chief Akhilesh Yadav could not control the infighting within the party. Many big leaders of the party kept raising the flag of rebellion against Akhilesh till some time before the voting. This includes leaders like Sambhal MP Atiqur Rahman Barke who has been associated with Mulayam Singh since the formation of the Samajwadi Party. Burke has considerable clout in several districts of western Uttar Pradesh, he is a leader of Azam Khan’s stature in the party. Apart from this, rebel candidates of SP from many districts are spoiling the game of SP by jumping into the fray. Even in Samajwadi Party’s bastion Etawah, the sounds of rebellion are echoing.

In Uttar Pradesh, BSP supremo Mayawati has tried to make big inroads in this class by fielding Muslim mayor candidates in 11 out of 17 municipal corporations. Its deep political meaning is being extracted. Samajwadi Party’s biggest fear is seeing the breaking of my (Muslim and Yadav) equation. Due to this, the SP family and veteran leaders of the party are seen in tension. At present, the enthusiasm for the municipal elections is intense in UP. Apart from this, the political atmosphere has heated up in the Swar of Rampur and Chhanbe assembly by-elections of Mirzapur. In the midst of all these political upheavals, vote bank politics is at its peak among the opposition parties. All the opposition parties are engaged in planning their strategy regarding the polarization of the Muslim vote bank. An attempt has been made by the Bharatiya Janata Party to help a large section by raising the issue of Pasmanda Muslims.

The slogan of 80-20 given by the BJP once again during the UP elections 2022 in the civic elections was also very much discussed. It was claimed by the BJP that the party is getting 80 per cent votes. Only 20 percent of the votes will go to the opposition parties. On behalf of the opposition parties, this issue was presented by linking it to the Hindu-Muslim vote bank. Meanwhile, UP Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya has created a new chord of 75-25. The Deputy CM has claimed that 75 percent of UP’s vote banks are in support of the Bharatiya Janata Party. 25 percent vote bank is getting divided among all the parties. Keshav Maurya also claims that out of those 25 percent votes, the Bharatiya Janata Party is getting votes in the division that is taking place. Politics has started on this. A different meaning is being extracted from Keshav Prasad Maurya’s statement.

In fact, in the past, there was a tremendous tussle between the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress regarding the Muslim vote bank. Samajwadi Party is constantly trying to woo this vote bank. All party leaders including Akhilesh Yadav and Dimple Yadav are strongly raising the issue of Muslims. Yogi is opposing the bulldozer model of the government to the encounter policy. On the other hand, Akhilesh and Dimple have indicated the possibility of a split in the Muslim vote bank by attacking BSP supremo Mayawati and calling her B-team of BJP. On one hand, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party have shown great generosity in fielding Muslim candidates, on the other hand, the Samajwadi Party, which has always been in the forefront of Muslims, this time has gone behind its old record in giving tickets to Muslim candidates. . The SP has voted for only four Muslim candidates for the post of mayor, the same number as the Congress. Fielding fewer Muslim candidates may be the election strategy of Samajwadi Party, but this fact cannot be ignored that now Muslims have no faith in Samajwadi Party as before. Many Muslim leaders of Samajwadi Party are angry with Akhilesh Yadav. This displeasure started with Azam Khan and has now reached Sambhal MP Shafiqur Rahman Burke. Burke is openly criticizing Akhilesh and praising BSP. Moradabad MP ST Hasan is also almost seen following in the footsteps of Burke.

The matter is not limited to Muslim leaders only. Muslim voters have also started doubting Akhilesh’s intention. In the case of Atiq Ahmed, many people feel that if Akhilesh Yadav had not provoked Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the Yogi government would not have taken such strict action against Atiq Ahmed. Atiq Ahmed’s jailed son had also called upon Muslim voters through a message not to vote for the Samajwadi Party as well as the Bharatiya Janata Party. This can explain the displeasure of Atiq’s family towards the Samajwadi Party. The Samajwadi Party may have to bear the loss of which in the civic elections.

Talking about the Congress, before the BJP in UP, the urban areas used to be the stronghold of the Congress. The Congress used to make its mayor in the body elections, but could not even open its account in the last election. Not only this, the performance of the Congress in the Municipal and Nagar Panchayat elections was not very special. The Congress, which got 2.33 per cent vote share in the 2022 assembly elections, is struggling to regain its lost political base through a good performance in the civic polls. He too has a keen eye on the Muslims. The Congress had also organized Rosa Iftar in the urban areas to woo the Muslim votes. The Congress has given 23 percent tickets to Muslims in the civic elections. Muslim candidates have been fielded on 4 seats of Municipal Corporation. Congress has fielded Rizwan Qureshi from Moradabad, Naseem Qureshi from Meerut, Nuzhat Ansari from Firozabad and Nikhat Iqbal from Shahjahanpur. However, Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi has not come to UP after the assembly elections. In such a situation, it has to be seen whether the Congress will be able to make a comeback through the body elections? Apart from the above parties, Owaisi’s party has also fielded its mayoral candidates in 10 municipal corporations, but instead of winning, they can only become the reason for someone’s defeat.

-Ajay Kumar