India could overtake US and China sooner than expected
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China’s economy is currently worth 19.373 trillion dollars. It is estimated to reach $27.4 trillion by 2028 and $57 trillion by 2075. That is, in the next 52 years, its economy will increase almost three times. During this time the American economy will also double to reach $51.5 trillion. America is currently the world’s largest economy with $26.885 billion. But in 2075, America will slip to number three. Then India will be the second largest economy in the world and will be only slightly behind the number one China. Currently, the size of India’s economy is $3.737 trillion, which is expected to reach $5.5 trillion by 2028. By the year 2075, India’s economy can reach 52.5 trillion dollars. That is, in the next 52 years, the economy of India is estimated to grow about 14 times.
America
America, the world’s largest economy, has recently suffered a major setback. Veteran rating agency Fitch downgraded America’s rating. Fitch has downgraded the US rating to AA+ from AAA. After this, there was a huge decline in the US stock market. Recently, the sword of bankruptcy hung over America. The debt on America has increased a lot. There was a situation of political deadlock in the country for several days on the issue of increasing the debt ceiling. In such a situation, considering the condition of the economy, Fitch has reduced the rating of America. This is the first time since 2011 that any agency has downgraded America’s rating. Then S&P downgraded America’s rating. Now only America has AAA rating in Moody’s rating.
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China
But the way China’s condition has deteriorated in recent times, it seems that India can overtake China much earlier than the estimates. The June quarter results in China have not been as expected. The country’s exports have fallen badly and unemployment is at its peak. Many countries in America and Europe are reducing their dependence on China. Consumption in the country has fallen badly. Morgan Stanley has downgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to equal weight. The firm said that investors should take advantage of the rally driven by government stimulus to book profits. Chinese assets have received a boost in recent days amid several promises by China to boost growth and revive the country’s ailing private sector. But analysts say these will not be enough to sustain gains in the stock.
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India
Morgan Stanley has changed the status of India to ‘Overweight’. The brokerage firm believes that the country’s reforms and macro-stability agenda support a strong capex and profit outlook. Morgan Stanley expects India’s economy to perform better in the future. India’s economic indicators remain resilient and the economy is on track to meet the GDP forecast of 6.2 per cent. Morgan Stanley analysts said, “India has moved from 6 to 1 in our process. Relative valuations are at a lower peak than in October. India’s ability to leverage the multipolar world dynamics is a significant advantage. India is arguably at the beginning of a long wave of growth. At the same time, it is coming to an end in China.
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