India’s opposition alliance is beginning to disintegrate due to Congress’s narrow-mindedness.

The results of assembly elections of five states have come. The current discussion across the country is about the victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the three states of the Hindi heartland, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. BJP was successful in saving the government in Madhya Pradesh and returned to power in the neighboring state Chhattisgarh by defeating Congress. Whereas in Rajasthan, Congress, which wanted to change the tradition of changing the government in every election, has failed. It has been successful only in the South Indian state of Telangana. BJP’s landslide victory in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh has surprised the poll pundits, while BJP’s growing support base in Telangana and Mizoram has created a stir in the Indian alliance.

The effect of Congress’ poor and disappointing performance is also visible on the unity of the Indi alliance. Questions are being raised as to what effect these results will have on this alliance and its future. This is also because after the results, the constituent parties of India have raised questions on the attitude of Congress.

Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge had called a meeting of the Indi alliance on 6 December. But just a day before the meeting, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Sorne, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav refused to attend the meeting. Congress has given clarification that Chennai airport is closed due to rain, hence even Stalin is not able to attend. Nitish Kumar is not well, while Mamata Banerjee is busy in programs. The Indi alliance meeting had to be postponed after the refusal of many alliance partners. Now the challenge before Congress is to save its clan.

The disappointing performance of Congress gave the constituent parties of the Indi alliance an opportunity to do pressure politics. The parties involved in the Indi alliance are now reminding the Congress not to follow the coalition dharma. They are also telling that Congress has had to suffer the consequences of not forming an alliance. In such a situation, the constituent parties are looking for their opportunity in the disaster of Congress. They are working on a strategy to compromise with Congress on their own terms. Therefore, he has given a clear message to Congress by staying away from the meeting.

The attitude shown by Mamata Banerjee after the second meeting of the Indi alliance made it clear that everything was not going well in the alliance. After this, Mamata Banerjee has expressed her displeasure by refusing to attend the meeting. However, he clarified that he had no information about when and where the meeting was taking place. No one had told me about the meeting nor had any call been received. If she had known, she would have gone to the meeting. On the contrary, it is being said from the Congress side that all the leaders were informed about the meeting. Mamata Banerjee’s clarification and defense of Congress has exposed the alliance. Earlier, when Mamata Banerjee was asked about the defeat of Congress, she bluntly said that this is the defeat of Congress and not of the people. Congress’s defeat happened because of ‘Zamindari attitude’. At the same time, Janata Dal United says that Congress has lost because of ‘arrogance’.

In fact, Congress was dreaming beautiful dreams before the elections in five states. He expected better performance in the elections. Through this, she was thinking of increasing her bargaining power and sitting firmly on the driving seat of the Indi alliance and taking arbitrary decisions. But poor performance has dashed his hopes. Now the tables have turned completely. Now the problems of Congress have increased. And he has to deal with the advice, conditions and bargaining of the constituent parties of the Indi coalition. Pressure and attacks from constituent parties will increase further in the coming times.

There is no doubt that the Indian Alliance and the Congress have missed an opportunity in these elections. In these elections, Congress could have taken the initiative of taking opposition parties along and bringing about a political change, which would have strengthened the spirit of the India alliance. Congress has missed the benefits it could have got by taking smaller parties with it. The political structure that changes due to the formation of an alliance does not change in the assembly elections. Like in Telangana, Congress had formed an alliance with CPI, but not with CPM. So, in other places too, they could not take advantage of bringing together small parties. In Chhattisgarh, the votes of Ajit Jogi’s party Janata Congress Chhattisgarh were transferred to BJP.

Similarly, Congress could have formed an alliance with Bharat Adivasi Party i.e. BAP in Rajasthan. If Akhilesh Yadav’s party Samajwadi Party wanted to contest elections in Madhya Pradesh, one or two seats could have been given to them. If Congress had given some seats to the Left parties, it could have brought new politics. But Congress also fell into the trap of soft-Hindutva. But Congress neither challenged Hindutva nor could play on it. And the result of all these mistakes of Congress is now in front of everyone. According to political analysts, it would have been beneficial if smaller parties were taken along in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. For example, if Samajwadi Party was given a chance in Madhya Pradesh, it would have got an opportunity to advance the structure of Bihar and UP and create acceptance. But this would require a long struggle, because such a structure did not exist there.

In fact, the India alliance has been facing many challenges since day one. Like its constituent parties are each other’s biggest rivals in many states and they have also been contesting elections against each other. Along with this, their opinion and stand on various issues and topics is also different. Due to lack of alliance in Madhya Pradesh elections, Akhilesh Yadav has already opened the front, whereas in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee has already made her stand clear regarding seat sharing with Congress and Left. Nitish Kumar also keeps showing his eyes from time to time. In such a situation, Congress has now become completely helpless in front of its constituent parties.

At the same time, it is also not necessary that what happened in the Assembly elections will happen in the Lok Sabha. But the task of those who want a change in power has definitely become difficult. If we want to remove BJP from the Centre, it is necessary to defeat it from Gujarat to Bihar. Congress currently has only three to four Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. It will be necessary for Congress to win some seats here, but this possibility has become difficult after today. If Congress had shown big heart in the assembly elections instead of trickery, maneuvering and manipulation, it would not have had to see these days. It is possible that in the coming days the India alliance will emerge in a new form. And there is also a strong possibility that a third front may come into existence.

-Dr. Ashish Vashishtha

(The author is an independent journalist)