Recession in 2024: Big recession is coming in job-stock market! The world was horrified by Europe’s PMI data.
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Recession in 2024: The whole world is troubled by the sound of economic recession. China’s situation is getting worse every day. Paul Dietrich, chief investment strategist at Brilly Wealth, has predicted that the US could be hit by a severe recession as early as 2024 as the entire economy is showing some signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, PMI data in Europe has put the whole world to sleep. According to a report by S&P Global, the recession in euro zone business activity deepened surprisingly in December. This suggests that the bloc’s economy is almost certainly in recession. Surveys showed that there was a broad decline in activity in both Germany and France and in services and manufacturing. Last quarter, the euro zone economy shrank by 0.1%, official data showed. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December shows that activity has declined in every month of this quarter. This would mark two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, meeting the technical definition of a recession. Earlier, the European Central Bank last Thursday cut its growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024.
Index fell for the seventh month
HCOB’s preliminary composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 47.0 this month from 47.6 in November, defying expectations for a rise to 48.0 in a Reuters poll and falling below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. The seventh month was recorded. The weak reading represents the sharpest average quarterly decline in activity recorded by the survey since the fourth quarter of 2012, if the initial pandemic lockdown months are excluded. PMI data broadly indicates a 0.2-0.3% decline in GDP on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the fourth quarter. After a 0.1% contraction in the third quarter, a fourth-quarter decline would push the eurozone into a technical recession. Andrew Cunningham of Capital Economics said the decline in the euro zone composite PMI in December provides more evidence that the economy is in recession. The situation in Germany has become worse. Which points towards a recession in Europe’s largest economy at the end of the year. Meanwhile, activity in France fell more sharply than expected as demand for goods and services in the euro zone’s second-largest economy fell further. The Bundesbank said Germany’s economy was set to shrink slightly this year and with difficulty ahead. Will increase because demand from abroad is weak. Government subsidies for the green transition have been curbed and high interest rates have reduced activity.
Production fell the most in 11 years
Business activity in the euro zone declined sharply in December, according to provisional PMI survey data. With the exception of the early pandemic months of 2020, output has declined at the fastest rate in 11 years. Both manufacturing and service sectors again registered a decline. Jobs were cut for the second consecutive month as companies cut operating capacity due to deteriorating order books and increasingly gloomy prospects for the coming year. Factories also cut input inventories at a rate not seen since 2009. Inflation signals were mixed: input cost inflation eased but selling price inflation accelerated, the latter remaining remarkably high by historical standards.
What is the condition of inflation in Europe?
Eurozone companies recorded a slowing in the rate of increase in input costs, which posted the smallest monthly increase since August and only a modest rise from the survey’s pre-pandemic average. Input prices in the manufacturing sector fell for the tenth consecutive month, the steepest rate of decline seen since the global financial crisis. With this, service sector input cost inflation fell to the lowest since July. Input cost inflation eased in December, with average selling prices rising at an increased rate. The increase was the largest monthly increase since May and remained high by historical standards of the survey. Although commodity prices fell for the eighth consecutive month, the decline was only marginal. The lowest recorded since May. Meanwhile, charges for services increased at a rate not seen since July. Looking at inflation expectations, the overall signal from the PMI sales price gauge is that CPI inflation will remain on average broadly unchanged in the coming months, slowing slightly from its current 2.4% pace and closer to the ECB’s 2% target. Will reach.
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