Vishwakhabram: In this situation, if there is a war between Iran and Israel, what will be its military and political consequences?

When the terrorist organization Hamas carried out a terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, killing about 1400 people, Iran was very happy because it was considered impossible to enter and attack Israel. Israel’s security system was considered impenetrable throughout the world, but Hamas had given Iran a chance to celebrate by breaking it. But now that there are fierce attacks on Gaza from Israel and the death toll in Gaza has crossed 10 thousand, Iran is in shock. Iran does not know whether to celebrate or repent for its actions. In view of the situation in Gaza, a round of meetings are going on in Iran but no one is finding a solution to deal with the current situation. That is why efforts are being made to keep the atmosphere warm by making empty statements. Under this, Iran has warned Israel that if it does not stop its continuous bombing of the Gaza Strip, it will have to face serious consequences on “many fronts”. However, along with this, Iran is also understanding that if it directly enters into this war, it may face difficult situations because seeing the opportunity, America will also want to attack it.

As far as Iran’s threat is concerned, it is believed that through this it has indicated that it may threaten the militia organizations working for it to intensify attacks on Israel. Let us tell you that both the Hezbollah terrorist group and the Assad government in Syria, which are involved in low-level clashes along the Israeli border with Lebanon, have close ties with Iran. On the other hand, given Iran’s increasingly hostile rhetoric, the US and Israel have strategized about what to do if Tehran gets involved in the conflict. If seen, Israel’s position regarding Iran has not been one of any kind of compromise. Earlier also he had advocated surgical strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and has also been involved in the assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientists. It looks like Iran’s possible entry into the Gaza war will open a new chapter in the animosity between the enemies and take the war straight to Iran’s doorstep.

Although it does not seem that Iran will attack Israel, but the question arises that if there is a war between Iran and Israel, what will be its military and political consequences? If this war happens, one thing is clear that Iran will have to face a strong reaction from Israel. Open conflict with Israel could prove very costly for Iran. This could not only allow the Israeli military to target Iranian facilities, but it could also have a political impact on Iran’s government, which is becoming increasingly unpopular among its own citizens.

The strength of Iran’s warnings, which always seem eager to play with fire, can be gauged from the fate of its earlier warnings. Let us remind you that after the US assassination of famous war hero Qasim Suleimani in January 2020, Iranian authorities had promised to give a “befitting reply”, but their response was relatively weak. Iran had given advance warning and attacked two airfields in Iraq where American troops were deployed. Not only this, despite the existence of Russia and Iran-backed Bashar al-Assad government in Syria, Iran never dared to attack Israel, while Israel has continuously targeted Iranian assets in Syria.

Talking about Iran’s stance regarding Israel, let us tell you that it rejects Israel’s right to exist and considers it not a country but a Jewish institution. Iran’s official announcements are full of anti-Israel statements. Apart from this, in June this year, Tehran had tested its new missile and claimed that it had the capability to reach Israel. Furthermore, Iranian military commanders take pride in training and arming Israel’s enemy groups throughout the region, including Hezbollah and Hamas.

Nonetheless, Iran now faces a dilemma as to how it and its proxy militias should respond to Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Seeing the fate that Israel has caused to Hamas trained and nurtured by Iran, Iran is not daring to move forward but if Iran does not do anything then its flamboyant leaders are also facing the danger of losing their credibility.

-Neeraj Kumar Dubey