With the slogan of BSP ‘Ekla Chalo’, a picture of triangular contest is emerging in Uttar Pradesh.

For the year 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the politics of Uttar Pradesh has started taking shape. Be it the Bharatiya Janata Party or the Samajwadi Party or the BSP-Congress, all are engaged in strategy-making, but one thing has become clear that for the 2024 general elections, the BSP has announced Ekla Chalo and decided that the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP The election on the seats will be triangular, apart from this, in some seats dominated by Congress like Rae Bareli, Amethi, the contest can also be all-round. The BSP has taken the decision of Ekla Chalo when the vote bank of the BSP shrunk in the 2014 elections and the party was voted out of the Lok Sabha after losing state power in 2012. Mayawati put full force in this election. But, neither Mayawati nor the ruling Samajwadi Party could do anything in front of BJP’s brand Modi. The BJP alliance ie NDA won 73 seats in this election. 5 seats went to SP and 2 seats to BSP. The party got only 19.60 per cent votes in the elections. The base vote of Mayawati, who does 22 to 25 percent vote bank politics, shifted. Since then BSP has not been able to recover.

During this, leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya joined the BJP, and the OBC vote bank firmly joined the BJP. When he joined BJP, he showed a new destination to the Dalit and Extremely Backward Class voters. Its effect was seen in the 2017 assembly elections. The BSP got 22.24 per cent votes, but the party was reduced to just 19 seats. After this, once again after 26 years, there was an alliance of SP and BSP at the time of 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the politics of UP, both the parties of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kanshi Ram, who have cleared the air of Kalyan Singh and Ram Mandir issue, united. Its impact was seen in the 2019 elections. The BJP, which won 71 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, came down to 62 seats. NDA won a total of 64 seats. That is, loss of 9 seats in 5 years. Mayawati’s BSP was in advantage. Taking advantage of the alliance with the SP, the party won 10 seats. Whereas, SP was able to win only 5 seats. Congress reduced to one seat. In the year 2019 elections, the vote share of BSP remained 19.3 percent even after alliance with SP. The SP came third with 18 per cent vote share. Congress could get only 6.31 per cent vote share. The BJP dominated the politics of the state with a vote share of 49.6 per cent.

After this, the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2022 were also difficult for the Congress and the BSP. The BSP, which formed the government four times in Uttar Pradesh, could get only 12.88 per cent votes. The party won only one seat. The party was saved from extinction in the assembly, but lost the base vote. BJP once again defeated all the parties. The party secured 41.76 per cent vote share. Whereas, SP came second with 32.02 per cent vote share. Whereas, Congress was able to get 2.4 per cent vote share. Congress won 2 seats in the assembly elections.

However, Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati’s spirits have not diminished even after successive defeats. She is once again seen preparing to enter the Lok Sabha elections 2024 with full enthusiasm. For this, Mayawati is continuously holding meetings with the district level workers. Once again there is an attempt to solve the Dalit, OBC and Muslim equation. BSP’s masterplan is ready. Mayawati has made her strategy clear by associating strong leaders of western UP like Imran Masood with the party in order to have a hold on the Muslim voters. Leaders like Guddu Jamali are with the BSP, while after Imran Masood, the big Muslim leader of western UP Shafiq ur Rehman Vark is also seen to be close to the BSP. Muslims are considered the core vote bank of SP. But, BSP and BJP are constantly trying to breach this vote bank. BSP is moving two steps ahead.

Meanwhile, SP MP Dr. Burke has created a stir in a statement by terming BSP supremo Mayawati as a well wisher of Muslims. After Burke’s statement, people’s eyes are on his next step. Political analysts believe that if Dr. Burke rides on an elephant, it will be an advantage for Mayawati. BSP will get another big Muslim face in western Uttar Pradesh. The stronger the BSP becomes by helping the Muslims, the more the SP may have to suffer. However, Mayawati still needs a partner who can transfer the vote bank to her. These fellows can also be Brahmins because Brahmins feel that justice is not done to them in the Yogi government. The Congress used to hold onto the Brahmin, OBC and Muslim vote banks in UP. She used to try to climb the ladder of power with their help. Mayawati has focused on Bahujan vote bank. In such a situation, it can try to help the upper caste vote bank with the help of Congress. Efforts will be made to transfer these votes to each other with the help of alliance.

Well, if we talk about the Samajwadi Party, the Samajwadi Party is still the face of the opposition politics in Uttar Pradesh, if the Samajwadi Party is able to establish its supremacy in the Uttar Pradesh municipal elections, then definitely the SP will take it to the ground for the next Lok Sabha elections. I can try On the other hand, BSP will try to win in its favor with the help of Dalit Muslim votes. BJP has maximum faith in its Hindu voters but does not want to anger other voters as well.

-Ajay Kumar