China Population Decilne: China’s population declined for the first time, know what is the important reason
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China Population Decline: China’s population has declined for the first time in 60 years and is set to halve by the end of the century. After years of decline, China will now enter what one government official has called an era of negative population growth, with the national birth rate hitting a record low of 6.77 births per 1,000 people.
Long the world’s most populous country
China has long been the world’s most populous country. Apart from the famine years (1959–61) caused by the Great Leap Forward political campaign, China’s population grew rapidly in the last decades. China’s rapid population growth began to slow in the 1970s when the Chinese government introduced family planning measures for fear of overpopulation. The most far-reaching measure was the one-child policy adopted in 1980, which limited each household to only one child (with some exceptions).
according to the logic of the government
According to the reasoning of the government at that time, reducing the population growth would make up for the lack of resources needed to raise the standard of living and promote economic growth. Accordingly, the rate of growth of China’s population remained slow for several decades. Now, for the first time in decades, the population has started declining. But, whether China’s population has truly peaked, and when and how fast this reduction will occur, is unclear and a matter of some debate.
UN World Population Prospects First Estimate
The United Nations World Population Outlook to 2022 previously predicted that China’s population would begin to decline around 2030. Data on China’s population is notoriously unreliable and depends on who is doing the counting. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, there were 1.4117 billion people in the country at the end of 2022, compared to 1.4126 million a year ago. But the United Nations Population Fund has estimated that the number of people in China is one billion 448.5 million and the World Population Review estimates one billion 426 million.
China’s population will halve by 2100
Population trend estimates vary based on different assumptions and data sources, leading to different expectations of how China’s society will develop over time. The further these estimates are extended in time, the more difficult they become. Many factors affect how the fertility rate develops over a decade – let alone half a century. So these predictions that China’s population will halve by 2100 need to be read with some caution. They depend on the assumption that how society develops over time. government failure
affected the fertility rate
For decades the Chinese government has tried to actively manage population growth by influencing the fertility rate. China’s fertility rate (1.3 in 2020) declined sharply following the one-child policy, allowing families to have two, then three children at the end of the policy in 2016. The Chinese government has also begun to support families in other ways, for example by promoting longer maternity leave and tax incentives for having children. But these policy changes appear to be too little, too late. Many experts – in China and elsewhere – have argued that the decade’s delay in ending the one-child policy has led to a sharp decrease in its population growth.
There was also a decrease in the adoption of new family planning policies
There has also been a decrease in the adoption of new family planning policies. After decades of promoting the family of three, this image has become deeply ingrained in Chinese society. Not only this, the cost of education, housing and marriage has also increased. Having more children is considered too expensive for many families. Yet, for some forecasters, this population decline has come at a faster rate than expected.
Kovid epidemic can also be the reason
One reason could be the Covid pandemic which has discouraged families from having more children. But it is difficult to quantify the effects of Covid. For example, China’s data on Covid-related deaths is unreliable. What does this mean for the world? When more people live longer – and fewer children are born – there are two consequences: a shrinking workforce and increased costs for people in old age.
Rapid economic growth a result of China’s large and cheap workforce
China China’s rapid economic growth is a result of its large and cheap workforce. With fewer workers available and global moves away from China, companies are moving their production elsewhere. This threatens China’s economic development model at a time when it is transitioning from a labor-intensive to a knowledge-intensive economy. Another growing concern is how to take care of the rapidly growing aging population. It is estimated that by 2079 there will be more Chinese outside the workforce than inside. Even if the aging of the population slows down more than expected, its pension, health and social care costs will become a heavy drag on economic growth, unless productivity increases.
China is not the only one facing such issues
China is not the only one facing such issues. Other East Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, are also experiencing rapidly aging populations. Similarly, many European countries, including Germany and Italy, have faced population decline over the decades. But, the situation in China is different. First, it is facing population aging and decline, while it is still a middle-income country, making it difficult to finance socio-economic transformation. Second, from an international perspective, China has taken a central position in global supply chains – so whatever affects China will have an effect on the world economy. So this story of China’s population decline affects China’s position in the world and the global economy at large.
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