Economic challenge arising out of increasing migration abroad

amazing Paradoxically, while India aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2027-28, the question is why are young people, even the super-rich, trying to migrate in large numbers? ? More importantly, are they not excited about the prospect when it is said that India’s economic growth rate will be the highest among the world’s major economies and that the Indian economy will soon overtake Japan and Germany to become the third largest in the world? Will go That too before 2030, as projected by global banking rating agency Morgan Stanley. For the past many years, the policy-makers implemented such policies which encouraged migration from villages to cities, but instead of this old leak, now the youth have taken a new path of migration, directly from the village to the foreign country.

Not only the youth from India, but also the super-rich are looking for opportunities to settle abroad, renouncing Indian citizenship in large numbers. The ultra-wealthy are those who have more than $1 million in cash only to invest. Parliament has been told that since 2011, more than 1.6 million rich have given up Indian citizenship, including last year’s figure of 1,83,741. TMC MP Mahua Mitra recently said in Parliament that 12.5-15 lakh people have given up Indian citizenship in the nine years between 2014-22.

I used to think that instead of going out, the rich people would choose to wait for some more time that maybe the economy and business situation will improve in the next years, which the government is claiming. But when the developed countries opened the way for the ultra-rich to give their direct citizenship under the investor-category, gradually more and more rich people from India started settling abroad for better living and business environment. . The loss caused to our domestic economy due to the migration of families of this class became beneficial for foreign countries.
However, if we talk again about the alarmingly increasing number of youth migrating abroad, that too to get higher education, it clearly shows how deplorable the level of education in the country is, and employment opportunities are also there. There are not enough, in such a situation, the youth are looking for their better future in foreign countries. Regrettably, instead of improving the quality of higher education, many state governments are trying to help aspirants seeking admission in foreign universities in a different way. For example, in Punjab, this assistance is in the form of ‘IELTS’ test of English.

Most of those who send their children abroad for higher education are those who have sold their farms or mortgaged property or taken loans for this. The average cost of studying abroad comes to 25-30 lakhs, which means foreign countries are getting such a huge amount of money coming out of the domestic economy. Under WTO provisions, overseas education is classified as a Mod-2 service category in consumer trade (yet countries around the world have not opened free movement to it). This provision opened the way for young students to get admission in foreign educational institutions, which boosts the economy of the host country.

Every student going abroad has this hope that in future he will get permission to stay there permanently. A better living standard, higher salary and higher level of social security etc. are the factors which entice students to go abroad.
For the past several years, there has been a steady flow of skilled labor to foreign countries from Punjab, Kerala and now also from Haryana. Where earlier people from these two states mainly used to go for business, now the focus is on education. From Punjab alone, around 1.5 lakh students are going abroad every year, from Kerala the number is around 35000. Now even in Haryana, the desire to go abroad for studies has started increasing, there also it is a common sight to see ‘shops’ for getting ‘IELTS’ done and getting visas.

The first preference for studying abroad is Canada, USA, UK, France, Australia, Italy and New Zealand. Children who do not succeed in gaining admission there go to several Eastern European countries such as Russia, Georgia, Latvia, Belarus and Uzbekistan. Soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Indian government had to arrange for the evacuation of about 22,500 students, mostly medical students, studying there.

Now call it ‘brain-drain’ if you want, but the presence of the young generation is decreasing due to the race to go abroad from Punjab, Kerala and Haryana for studies. At this rate, soon these states will turn into ‘old age homes’. In financial terms, this will affect domestic demand. An interesting article by former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan in a newspaper dated January 4, 2023, on how the shortcomings in our education system and failure to promote job creation make a huge difference in achieving overall development Is. In this, he has cited the National Family and Health Survey as saying that in the five years between the financial years 2015-16 and 2019-21, the area owned by a farmer has decreased by an average of 22 percent. The land holding of small farmers has also decreased by 8.5 percent annually. Although this data does not directly prove, but the indication is clear that in most of the cases this shortfall is due to sale of land for higher education of children.

The report of the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) and Ashoka University states that between January 2020 and October 2022, in about 3 years, an additional 1.2 crore people have become unemployed. The biggest impact has been on the youth group of 15-39 years. An earlier CMIE report had pointed out that a majority of the country’s 90 crore working workforce has stopped looking for jobs. Taken together, this points to a growing disenchantment among the youth. This is the reason why such claims that the growth rate will pick up again and our economy will become $5 trillion in the next few years are not convincing the youth. In simple words, the growth of the economy alone is not the only factor which can meet the aspirations of the growing population. Unless the focus is again on improving the level of education, making it accessible, affordable and quality and solving the prevailing unemployment crisis, it is possible to motivate the youth to remain at home and prevent them from participating in the economy. No. This is a challenge and well within the resources of the government, provided the focus is actually on giving fruit to the slogan ‘Sabka Saath… Sabka Vikas’.
,Dai.tri.
Devinder Sharma