How Ukraine War Is Changing Europe

Rahis Singh

There was a time when ‘Mercozism’ (a term used for the shared economic theory of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former French President Nicolas Sarkozy) became a model for the European economy as well. However, after the ‘sub-prime’ crisis in America, when the euro zone economy suffered setbacks and ‘Brexit’ happened, its effect also weakened. The question here is why these countries are supporting the same things which they were opposing at that time. The question is also how much and in what way did the Russia-Ukraine war affect Europe? Can this war be considered a ‘turning point’ or historical turning point for countries like Germany and France?

new geo-politics

Recently, in an international magazine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron expressed a common point of view. In this, Olaf Scholz has described the period after Russia’s attack on Ukraine as ‘Zietenwende’ ie ‘historic turning point’ for Germany. The question is whether the date of Russia’s attack on Ukraine (24 February 2022) was really the turning point for Germany? Can this date be considered as the beginning of new geo-politics for Germany? Macron indicated a Germany-like ‘shifting’ for France as well, which has two aspects.

• First, Ukraine should be given the membership of NATO.
• Second, the borders of the European Union should be expanded in the east and south.

Keep in mind, till some time ago, France used to take a skeptical view on the inclusion of new members in any group, but now it seems to be advocating it in both the European Union and NATO groups.

• Even before the Vilnius (Lithuania) meeting of NATO this month, France had started preparing its friendly countries for this.
• Emmanuel Macron had said in Slovakia’s capital Batislava on May 31 that ‘we need to adopt the path towards membership’. This statement of Macron surprised European countries as well as America. The reason is that in the year 2008, France and Germany blocked the path of Ukraine’s membership.
• Interestingly, four years ago, Macron told The Economist magazine that NATO was going through “brain death”.

How did NATO, which had ‘brain death’ in Macron’s view, become capable of building Europe’s defensive wall today? Why did Macron find the border expansion of the European Union imperative for geo-politics? French European Affairs Minister Lawrence Boone has also said that our need is to move towards geo-political construction. If seen, it is a ‘structural shift’ in true sense. After all, what is the meaning of this shifting and what is the intention behind it? Is it part of preparations to reshape Europe? If so, there should be an impartial review of the ‘war game’ going on on Ukrainian soil, which perhaps actor-turned-politician Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hasn’t understood yet.

• Zelensky’s behavior in the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war made it appear that NATO would emerge as his force in his fight against Russia. But nothing like this happened.
• The president of Ukraine, which Macron has been scrambling to join NATO and the European Union, was so isolated in Vilnius that people started commenting on his picture as ‘a child lost at the fair’ and that Zelensky has become a victim of the ‘use and throw’ strategy.

Even if so, what other way do they have? Not that let it go on as it is going on. Another way could be an agreement with Russia. By the way, the first situation will lead the economy of Ukraine to that quagmire, from where it will be difficult to get out. However, it is necessary to clarify about Russia-Ukraine that it is not only the result of Vladimir Putin’s dictatorship. It is part of the ‘war game’ of the big powers. If Russia is wrong, how can NATO be right and so is Ukraine, which has been fueling neo-Nazism for years?

• Ukraine also activated linguistic extremism, including organizations such as ‘Right Sector’, ‘Svoboda’ (Freedom) and ‘Stepan Bandera’, which have been anti-Russian and pro-Nazi. Their aim was not to allow Russians to live anywhere in Ukraine and some other countries.
• The US and the countries of Western Europe seem to be supporting these right-wing forces in the same way they covertly supported German Nazism, Italian Fascism and Japanese militarism in the 1930s.

example of power play

Anyway, under the leadership of America or NATO, the western world keeps on needing some wars, be it ‘small scale’ or ‘large scale’. These are fought for the purpose of showing power and expanding the arms market. Ukraine can also be an example of this. From this it is easy to understand what would be the implication of Olaf Scholz’s ‘Zietenwende’ and France’s ‘Tornant historique’. Overall, Ukraine seems to be becoming such a source of ‘power play’, which the western powers want to run on the ‘click and browse’ pattern. The pictures of President Zelensky at the function in Vilnius point in this direction.

(The author is an expert on international affairs)