Recession in 2024: A terrible recession is coming in the new year! Experts made big predictions regarding jobs and stock market.

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Recession in 2024: The whole world is facing economic problems. Rising inflation has become an alarm bell for the economy not only of India but of almost all the countries of the world. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), a situation of deflation has arisen in China. The biggest reason for this is being said to be weak domestic demand and the resulting slow economic recovery. China witnessed the sharpest decline in consumer prices in three years in November. The consumer inflation (CPI) rate has fallen by 0.5 percent between November 2022 and October 2023. China’s real estate and banking are already in effect. Now experts have made a big prediction regarding America. According to Paul Dietrich, chief investment strategist at Brilly Wealth, the US could be in the grip of a serious recession as early as 2024 as the entire economy is showing some signs of recession.

Stock market booms before recession

Paul Dietrich pointed to the tremendous gains investors have seen in the S&P 500 this year, with the benchmark index having its best month of the year in November. This rally is largely driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early next year. But Dietrich warned that a rate cut was unlikely unless the economy entered recession. He said investors should not count on the central bank lowering borrowing costs unless the US economy falls into a serious recession – which could happen as early as next year. The Fed usually starts cutting rates when the economy is in sharp decline and unemployment is rising – which simply means a recession. Paul Dietrich says that signs of recession have started forming. He said the stock market’s 20% rise this year is a warning sign, as the S&P 500 has typically posted larger gains in recession months. This was the case before the recessions of 2001, 2008 and 2020, when stocks rose rapidly before the economy started contracting.

Many more signals are coming from the market

Paul Dietrich, chief investment strategist at Brilly Wealth, said there are other stock market disconnects that indicate the economy will soon enter a recession. However, the S&P 500 is up overall this year. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index, which is more representative of the average stock, has fallen into correction territory. The labor market has also started weakening. Job opportunities have reduced, while claims for unemployment benefits are continuously increasing. Although the unemployment rate decreased in November, unemployment claims briefly rose to 1.93 million last month. This is the highest since the end of 2021. He said markets have generally warmed up to the idea of ​​a better landing next year. Wall Street strategists broadly expect another positive year for stocks in 2024. Bank of America and Deutsche Bank have predicted that the S&P 500 could see a new all-time high in 2024. Meanwhile, the New York Fed cut its 12-month recession forecast to just 51%, from more than 70% earlier this year.

What is economic recession?

Economic recession is an economic term that refers to a state of economic slowness for a particular region, sector, or social segment. It may be a periodic phenomenon in which there is a slowdown in markets, employment, production, and other economic sectors. Economic recession can occur due to various reasons, such as economic conditions, job loss, market-wide unrest, and other economic factors. Its impact can be felt in the prosperity, production, and employment sectors and can also affect the economic condition of the people. It can be of many types.

• Market recession:

  A market recession or slowdown in the market means that there is a decrease in demand for products and services and this results in a decline in the prices of products and services. This may indicate a decrease in market conditions and problems in the economic situation.

• Investment and Financial Recession:

  The slowdown in investment and financial slowdown means that investors and financial institutions are suffering losses due to the decline in the respective financial markets. This may include stock market, commodity market, and currency market.

• Employment recession:

  A slowdown in employment recession means that people are lacking jobs and this can create problems in the economic situation.

• Production slowdown:

  A slowdown in production recession means that the production level of products and services is decreasing and this can affect the prices of the products.

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