Why Asim Munir started batting for the return of Nawaz Sharif, what is the connection of America in all this?

Elections will be held on February 8 for the Pakistan National Assembly (NA) as well as the country’s four provincial assemblies. The Election Commission confirmed the election date after the Supreme Court cleared the objections raised by the Lahore High Court against the appointment of civil servants as returning officers for the elections. The Supreme Court has also rejected specific complaints with the delimitation process. It was held that since the election date has been announced, these objections cannot be considered.

The strength of the National Assembly after the delimitation process is 336. Of these, 266 will be general seats, 60 seats will be reserved for women and 10 for non-Muslims. Women and non-Muslim seats will be allotted to parties on the basis of their performance on general seats. The general allocation of seats on provincial basis is as follows: Punjab-141, Sindh-61, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-45, Balochistan-16 and Federal Capital Territory-3. In this election, like before, the parties will win or lose based on their performance on the general seats. Furthermore, Punjab has more seats than the other three provinces and the Federal Capital Territory combined; Thus, the party that controls Punjab controls Pakistan.

The gap between Khan and Munir deepened

Army chief General Asim Munir will try to ensure that former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) does not succeed in the elections. The events of 9 May when PTI workers and supporters attacked army installations and martyrs’ memorials ensured that the gap between Khan and Munir could not be bridged. Khan has been in jail since May, charged in several cases and courts have denied him bail. Munir also removed a large number of senior officers who were believed to be sympathetic to Khan. Therefore, the army is completely under his control. Many leaders from PTI are leaving the party. So far, it appears that the military’s desire to decimate PTI electorally will prevail. Additionally, Sharif’s PML (N) should find success in Punjab. Its chances have increased with the return of its leader Nawaz Sharif two months ago from London, where he has been since 2019. However, instead of rousing his supporters and others by presenting a concrete program that would try to solve Pakistan’s myriad problems ranging from its dire economic situation, Nawaz Sharif, who was Prime Minister three times in the past, is haunted by the injustices of those past Which he and his daughter Maryam Nawaz have had to face. He is opening a front against his previous opponents, including the army, which swung the 2018 national elections in Imran Khan’s favour.

Nawaz Sharif has confidence in the army chief

Nawaz Sharif is counting on Munir to create conditions that will tilt the electoral field in PML(N)’s favour. It was he who had insisted that Munir should succeed former army chief General Qamar Bajwa in November 2022, even though there were technical difficulties in his promotion to lead the army. Apparently, Nawaz Sharif feels that Munir has a lot of grudges against Khan from the time when Khan, as Prime Minister, put pressure on Bajwa to remove him from the post of DG ISI and replace him with Faiz Hameed. And, now after the events of May 9 there is no way that Munir will join PTI in power. This leaves PML(N) as the only option. Amidst all this, the Army’s position as the final arbiter of Pakistan’s destiny will not be denied. If recognition of this fact of Pakistan’s national life was needed it has been provided by Munir’s tour of America which began on 12 December. Of course this visit is important for Pakistan, but it will also impact India and the region.

Meaning of Munir’s visit to America

During his week-long US visit, Munir met Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown and US Central Command chief General Michael Eric. Kurilla. He also interacted with members of American think tanks and the Pakistani diaspora. Munir went to New York to meet UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. Obviously, by giving such wide access to Munir, America wanted to send the message that it considered Pakistan an important player in the region. It also showed that it has decided to leave behind its unhappiness with the dual role played by Pakistan in Afghanistan by supporting the Taliban. This role, among other reasons, was responsible for America’s strategic defeat at the hands of the Taliban in Afghanistan. During Munir’s visit, US spokespersons said that whoever the Pakistani people elect as their leader in the upcoming elections, their country will deal with him. However, the truth is that America’s and Munir’s interest in Imran Khan is a coincidence. In March 2022, Khan, under siege, accused the US of wanting to remove him from the post of Prime Minister because he refused to be guided by US choices regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and other foreign policy issues. Previously, Khan had been particularly vocal against the US role in Afghanistan and had praised the withdrawal of US forces from that country. He had said that Taliban has broken the chains of slavery. This history between Khan and America will make it difficult for America to deal with Khan. Therefore, US decision makers will surely be happy trying to ensure the political end of Munir Khan and pushing PTI to the margins of Pakistan politics.

impact on india

While 2024 will reveal how far the US and Pakistan go to revive their ties, it is clear that General Munir’s visit shows that the US is serious about stabilizing its relations with Pakistan. Removing Imran Khan’s PTI from Pakistan’s political landscape will help that process. Unless Pakistani voters are surprised in the February 8 elections and General Munir is unable to control the situation, 2024 will see US-Pakistan relations moving in a positive direction. This will naturally impact India.