Tories moving towards annihilation in general elections, survey claims Labor Party coming to power with 385 seats

The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their defeat by Labor in 1997, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted. The YouGov poll of 14,000 people predicted the Tories would retain only 169 seats, while Labor would come into power with 385 seats. Sir Keir Starmer will get a majority of 120 seats. The survey indicates that every Red Wall seat won by Boris Johnson from Labor in 2019 will be lost and the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will be one of 11 cabinet ministers to lose their seats.

The Tories will win 196 fewer seats in 2019 than Sir John Major’s 178 seats in 1997. The survey highlights the huge impact Reform can have on the UK election outcome. The right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in a Tory defeat. This result would be the largest fall in support for a governing party since 1906, with the Labor Party swinging by 11.5 percent. This would guarantee Sir Keir’s party a stay in government for at least a decade, as no party with such a large majority has ever lost the next election.

There is also bad news for the Scottish National Party, which is projected to lose almost half its seats to Labor and retain only 25 seats. Rishi Sunak will be under increasing pressure to move towards a far more conservative agenda as he faces a crucial vote on his Rwanda policy this week. It will also be closely studied by Tory MPs, who believe a change of leader before this year’s election is the only way to avoid disaster.