Will there be bloodshed in Russia? What will Wagner fighters do after Chief Prigozhin’s death?
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The presence of the private military organization ‘Wagner Group’ extends from the ancient battleground of Syria to the sub-Saharan African region reflecting the Kremlin’s global influence with private troops, but after the alleged death of the ‘Wagner’ chief in a private plane crash There is talk that its soldiers are facing uncertainty. Wagner is accused of using brute force and profiting from confiscated mineral wealth.
Until now the Wagner group remained under Yevgeny Prigozhin. In a video released earlier this week, Prigozhin is seen in military uniform with an assault rifle in an undisclosed dry and dusty field. This could also be his last video. In this video he claimed that Wagner was “making Russia greater on all continents and Africa more free”.
A private jet carrying Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner group that provided private soldiers, and his top aides crashed northwest of Moscow on Wednesday. The incident occurred two months after Prigozhin led an armed uprising challenging the authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin. There is widespread speculation that Prigozhin (allegedly dead) was targeted for assassination because of the rebellion. However, the Kremlin has denied involvement.
The crash has raised questions about the future of Prigozhin’s private army, the Wagner Group, which fought alongside Russian forces in Ukraine before their brief mutiny against the military leadership in Moscow. Russian officials have cited the need to await the results of a DNA test to confirm Prigozhin’s death, but Putin has expressed condolences after the jet fell from the sky. The Russian leader has ordered soldiers of the Wagner Group to sign an oath of allegiance to the Russian government, according to an order published on the Kremlin’s website late Friday and effective immediately.
The order came after the Kremlin on Friday dismissed suggestions from Western officials and news media that the Wagner leader may have been killed on Putin’s orders. In African countries where Wagner provided security against groups such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State, officials and commentators anticipate Russia will likely maintain a presence there by providing new leadership to the forces. However, others say Prigozhin had built deep and personal relationships and it could be challenging for Moscow to immediately replace him.
Africa is extremely important for Russia economically and politically. This summer, Wagner helped ensure a national referendum in the Central African Republic that cemented the president’s power, is a key partner of Mali’s military in fighting armed rebels, and has liaised with the military junta in Niger. Kiya who wants its services after the coup. Expanding ties and reducing Western influence in Africa is a top priority as the Kremlin looks for new allies amid a war with Ukraine, where Wagner forces also helped win a key battle.
The 54 countries in Africa are the largest voting group in the UN and Moscow has worked actively to garner their support for its attack. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said on Friday, “Wagner’s troops are creating ‘destabilisation’.” We have encouraged countries in Africa to condemn their presence as well as their actions. The UK Ministry of Defense said that Prigozhin’s death would certainly have a “profound and destabilizing effect” on the Wagner Group. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined Friday to comment on Wagner’s future.
Prigozhin founded the Wagner Group in the year 2014, whose aim was not only to increase the global influence of Russian. The group’s contractors in Syria, Libya, Sudan and elsewhere exploited the mineral and energy wealth of those countries to enrich themselves. Central African Republic legislator and opposition leader Martin Ziguele said the Wagner group was active in gold mining, timber and other industries without paying taxes. He said, “We can only conclude that it is looting. After the uprising, Wagner’s fighters went to Belarus instead of getting amnesty under the agreement between Putin and Prigozhin.
Although US officials have not confirmed whether Russia or Wagner had any role in the coup in Niger, there are fears the Kremlin could use it to undermine Western countries in West Africa. Mercenaries are active in Mali and have a suspected presence in Burkina Faso. Niger residents say Prigozhin’s alleged death will not deter Russia from seeking to expand its influence. “We believe Russia wants to establish a base here and become popular,” Barou Suleimanin, a tailor from Niamey, told the AP. It is clear that they want to be here. A military junta seized power in Mali in 2020 and ordered the end of a decade-long UN peacekeeping mission, expelling French troops, diplomats and media.
Although not officially recognized by the government of Mali, Bagner’s troops are known to operate in the rural north, where rebel and extremist groups are active against the government. Human Rights Watch says that Mali’s army, in collaboration with Wagner’s suspected mercenaries, is involved in massacres, looting and kidnappings. Ali Nouhoum Diallo, former speaker of the National Assembly, said, “What we have experienced through Wagner is the genocide of our people.”
The Belarusian Hajun, a group monitoring Russian troops in Belarus, said on Thursday that satellite images showed more than a third of the tents in the Wagner camp had been destroyed, indicating a possible escape. But President Alexander Lukashenko is insisting on keeping about 10,000 troops in Belarus, which has been strongly opposed by opposition parties. Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya, an exiled opposition leader from Belarus, told the AP, Prigozhin’s death should end the Wagner Group’s presence in Belarus, reducing the threat it poses to our country and its neighbors.
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